{"id":16161,"date":"2025-08-01T19:49:38","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T19:49:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/?p=16161"},"modified":"2025-08-08T15:53:16","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T15:53:16","slug":"july-2025-market-call-canada-housing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/july-2025-market-call-canada-housing\/","title":{"rendered":"Highlights from July 2025 Market Call with Daniel Foch | A Data-Driven Analysis on Canada\u2019s Real Estate Trends"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-rank-math-toc-block\" id=\"rank-math-toc\"><h2>Table of Contents<\/h2><nav><ul><li><a href=\"#bond-yields-are-the-real-rate-narrative\">Bond Yields Are the Real Rate Narrative<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#borrowers-are-strategizing-not-panicking\">Borrowers Are Strategizing, Not Panicking<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#the-debt-burden-is-shifting-and-stretching\">The Debt Burden Is Shifting and Stretching<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#the-market-has-rebalanced-but-its-not-healthy\">The Market Has Rebalanced, But It\u2019s Not Healthy<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#were-not-buying-were-leasing\">We\u2019re Not Buying, We\u2019re Leasing<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#were-not-building-enough-and-not-fast-enough\">We\u2019re Not Building Enough And Not Fast Enough<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#ownership-is-being-capped-by-design\">Ownership Is Being Capped by Design<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#the-economy-is-fragile-and-tariffs-arent-helping\">The Economy Is Fragile and Tariffs Aren\u2019t Helping<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#final-word\">Final Word<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#want-to-stay-ahead-of-the-curve\">Want to Stay Ahead of the Curve?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thirty-Five Charts That Will Change How You See the Market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada\u2019s housing market isn\u2019t whispering anymore. It\u2019s roaring. And the sound isn\u2019t about crashes or booms, it\u2019s about pressure. Supply pressure. Debt pressure. Rent pressure. Every part of the system is strained, and for once, it\u2019s the numbers telling the real story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This blog is your full diagnostic: every pressure point, every signal flashing red, every quiet crack beneath the surface. Pulled straight from Daniel Foch\u2019s latest market update, it pairs sharp narrative with hard data: thirty-five charts that lay bare why ownership is slipping, how debt is grinding down growth, and what it really means to live through a housing system in transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s go section by section. Just the truth, chart by chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"bond-yields-are-the-real-rate-narrative\"><strong>Bond Yields Are the Real Rate Narrative<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bank of Canada may have paused its policy rate, but mortgage rates are still drifting higher. Why? Because fixed rates follow the bond market and the bond market is pricing in risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. It\u2019s hovering just above 3 percent, well above the lows we saw earlier this year. This is the core input in how lenders price your mortgage. It tells us that cheap credit isn\u2019t coming back anytime soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcYyB1pHtI8bND5zVj8DvQZxjfiXJV0ReSCuCJI9zziGceGyvj0me02WR8X8nH09nOD5abJZEcA4NHUsB4xKSeIZSQhROk0yx71fDRV-su8oNxOFPURlKLZKXiIEQ-RP5PvDO6Dfg?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Even the market&#8217;s own forecasts show no real decline in sight. Both the 2-year and 5-year rates are projected to stay elevated into 2027, dragging mortgage affordability with them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXdaNfY4NZ8MpE3gGdI4Bdn0SJAHGKt_yFwE8FaHjAGV54pZSksvBqaWqmZAHIgGA5ZQHQ5t7CZQholesmrQllGLqf1I2JS-yfaBq82_FdGjIpLPTrvdsH0Nb_ezsfiD_Oe86Y7bug?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The punchline? Don\u2019t wait for relief from rates. Structure your next deal as if this is the new normal, because for now, it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"borrowers-are-strategizing-not-panicking\"><strong>Borrowers Are Strategizing, Not Panicking<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>You can always tell what buyers believe about the future by looking at their mortgage picks. And what we\u2019re seeing right now is a pivot back to variable rates, despite years of pain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This chart shows a sharp drop in the share of 3-year fixed mortgages and a notable uptick in variable rate demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXdQIQIheHyJDeKys9AifibWBTYCtFCYbNzuvipfZq7nq5zNj0tgFhRNuXF3ICv2VhoyP_EDGJY3FEF-ibeapaopTPjRPCIs4RWH5MKk5eBG5kziAiS6Oyj7Dgq_m8gdt5D04W-cew?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>What does that mean? Consumers are betting that rates will fall sooner than the Bank of Canada suggests. Or at the very least, they want the flexibility that a variable rate offers, especially if they think they might need to sell or refinance soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And while renewal stress has been a major headline, the data tells a more measured story. Roughly one-third of borrowers will see payment increases by 2026, not the majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXf863h1oi-1NdA-kuGSmQoYtN5IXLfCKPi9coiSdycRT0F0CrX9FZSrUN255JiWvvxhU0wjGoGBHoqZOUUUux-id7w-q1zck7YZM8JCGetY_XmGb4JYkFe02xx4oDHpa70fE2Xj?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The overall payment growth across Canada? Slowing. Mortgage service costs have stabilized after a period of wild volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXctl_2VxGdkZ6adMMUSmlU3jhddb0q0mwWzPD13kt-H-eHDQXTOVfdvgkDbpi9Hm2dWrbKET1adFHbEiRiQ3ak4eBJJcKoI98FopvL5IS_dFEQzpJ2yl-s1vKrvbkLbUbEilQuvfg?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXdGmySwhcjuxBWy4xt0CqE0BeZHgQs3q56W6DqK5xEKNZJUy2IVj2-9DpD87Edf3rXATQB5f1kqshaV287mAypB0PqQwYDRYZgZroIC9DTRtuVWP9DNkBDqfdXXpvI7pt-VwUU3?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Renewal anxiety is real, but this isn\u2019t a cliff. It\u2019s a slow, uneven ramp. And a lot of Canadians are maneuvering around it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-debt-burden-is-shifting-and-stretching\"><strong>The Debt Burden Is Shifting and Stretching<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If you want to understand this market, follow the leverage.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take a look at where Canadians are investing: real estate demand is flat, but capital is flowing heavily into US securities. A clear sign that trust in the housing market\u2019s near-term performance is eroding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfYr_2eFhxFaJemcs0A7URivbjg3K13wdzQQx7BpI4IiOe2INPLesZ6h7udZtzXsk2JWyxarp-ToKLo29JCym9dITd2kLjd4eVpQCtpyQ47rVEDvQMx_OERp0NbX4aAUQlhIzFY?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>StatsCan shows that 35\u201344 year-olds remain the most indebted cohort: no surprise, given they\u2019re in the peak homebuying window. But what\u2019s changed is who\u2019s accelerating their debt: the 55+ crowd. They\u2019re tapping into home equity, co-signing mortgages, and taking on liabilities to prop up a system that younger buyers can no longer access on their own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcKdkXRg8GtgVRgHbiQEBqxhrn527W15YVfMyqf9QqNG7DiCH9qeewLRDQsLQEPiK1vTKVdhFaGEtAuvBK9tuR7dltui1spU5YXTsZgWlzv-Qdeaw2RLjn5x0tgtKAZ_xj9wWXu?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The wealth gap in Canada is also changing. The top earners are getting wealthier, and the bottom quintile is sinking further into debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXefkbwFB3dt4sJrAfiX5kaHhrvsakPxbh21a3m_XkWKR-Pa9zG3yBR3HZQtsNmeOTMRpQ3yOw8VOxSHoKZsyH-a1F-ZOD5tkHfX8aJFsupSoqfy9-_Gb6zsCXOQd6POCeUXXsQVaQ?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Credit product delinquencies are ticking up, across everything except mortgages and HELOCs. Those, for now, remain sacred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXf7v7Jlxj2z0QUSbvQQvIXDD7aPHlLaHRhF3moaOcjbaUEs-fFuzPiA43m74j0HwNHoOFB9VnZlFrXROk67nZcTK1VtjUNkGehnuOZUnYpQmyt_hipA2sm4tqqK1etpzFqanstx4w?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But debt service ratios are climbing, especially among lower earners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXeJy43mmq-ilNeqPHAM12vhsT-oE7yoTfr8u94yTgRItH8SeoMZo6XpHE_ZTRVrwTMzz1DMU3mSZIXH29dPwGLUBNmHqpj5NIvGjn2migC6_IsDXjJrNh_Oh4T0cBp8wa6KfPWT?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Younger Canadians are tapping out. Average mortgage debt for those under 35 is falling. They\u2019re not deleveraging, they\u2019re locked out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXezD3IVGQnksbwel9C90KkvhztcPn4Fgz2e2U_Xhu0oWSokvKwIwQQmZru8EBN-zA02hLIYL4ej_EImVOqem1gRar2B-5VPJ00hSgYy9IKQSyGk020r1CpKfbp_r8_H_pikgGjW0Q?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And even those who hold homes are stretched. On a per capita basis, Canadians carry far more debt than Americans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXebY7r3RLBVnkk4FC0ewrqNEIJoafODKWR6Sd78C7KRq0F1d8o5iRl5Sz8uXvSltreoatP1rNXi_HvF26IuPz2Qv0yloGR58KMhInOO57X8fQHBUBcti87rer6Odo9qRp7rWqSP2A?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Even when adjusted for net worth, we still lose. Canadian liabilities make up a larger share of total wealth than south of the border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXd5rzjdPI-DeVzRuzIGNVVsvbXBIXkCkWxyzcrHhifVm1HkJecTZnqQlMAPeOcRw0TkhX2WaK0nOLqC9H8xT9DYdn3yiDruGkBR3rAF57RT1qhXs7y3GPQ-rQUHh9LxtDsi1eJMJw?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a system where leverage drives wealth, unless you\u2019re the one locked out of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-market-has-rebalanced-but-its-not-healthy\"><strong>The Market Has Rebalanced, But It\u2019s Not Healthy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>You\u2019ve probably heard the phrase &#8220;soft landing.&#8221; This is what it looks like. Not a crash. Just exhaustion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Price momentum has stalled. What little acceleration we saw in early 2023 has vanished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXf4BuaTWL7-BE2a5p6HJFoCsoJ3scc-IknYj1mfUr17BQ9S-9hyQqPnpOiC1GuDnUrva0ju1i0B3a1_pCr8tLnRWARSz_MnAfEvVwrNobdvSFrIXxKhdEGytyr_ngsx63P-gDeT?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Home price trends show a clear decline. The peak is behind us. <strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resale inventory is climbing but buyers aren\u2019t panicking, but they are hesitating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXehDEbw8kaSkFLuzg2pq5Yl1SsZfQ1GuVYG9v_lBWQL7ITiHTr63BZM0VIf5RPS1mV9zvEWc_Usgp8TLDGWaHntQYHL1uOg_Js5u2BEyN9ZMQ-27xarqU0xZOVQIIHjepOjgAXw0A?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The sales-to-new listings ratio has cooled to balance. And that\u2019s exactly what this market needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXeww_aN5bYmVEylhmuYoxpmk3M_k9UnB9gyXLWQVDG8v2sYUHYOvytxxZgZt-Onk8idssn8tOe1CuOUXIAWR-bkF0bIoA-V_DjrxBr43anA2L0QJiYpnNTCGDVN5VZQq3FylDuXBQ?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Regionally, it is a mix of seller-friendly and buyer-friendly markets. <strong><\/strong>In most major markets, this is a good market for negotiation. A good market for buyers. And a critical moment for sellers to get real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"were-not-buying-were-leasing\"><strong>We\u2019re Not Buying, We\u2019re Leasing<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The most obvious shift in Canadian real estate right now? The explosion in rental housing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Purpose-built rental starts have surged past condo starts for the first time in decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXet4uWBKwpSpz6LYtJbSW4Gz3fFkc0woiyxAt0jDmlTY4Vo2PWBP3nVJf6qCelW2T91byxyr-jkUg--WE_SRAftpbw8DbXUXwn1DYuopzFzsJLOZwnZwxtn4ya89IB-ziswk2DY?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re becoming a nation of renters. Whether by design or by default.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CMHC\u2019s own portfolio now insures more rental dollars than ownership housing. That\u2019s a policy shift<br><br><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfKbQgj6Igd92E78am43KoGOMIbeMZY8njDJzhqfPyKRdt1Ye6gHSGVbdlAUtNLUiOp_RDFzGRK808PFR9hl2eEUGU7UjM_BtNue9rQf6jfEB2-9vRNaVBZ-a5Dkc8NaijcWi7n?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" width=\"1351\" height=\"793\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rental construction pipelines are at record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXdJVlY-kl2hKv3fYETT2m613cf_BpXOIeDd1P3Vh3EUKkXPd0Gu4xELDT-e1ycONK-JpGSs1wJ1CV-FXkP_-VAfoYhQrwFDs_I8S9HgfpCuJbEZzcqcHlL8p3He3VJsAcv-W53Wvg?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXeBbjELuMczsS7nFE77Zhluoyo2SC46FQNEaFke4qHfz67EHVBIUGmMdqPs0i-J0-2roHpiO2wa7W7mBKMgx68P6ivcrCu3UE6HXwmrtlTI34-gug9IjUJDrhe0lE6zCxcQw0AZKQ?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfbzfHy6uiZ8-nbOXrJwvVM5frbEmsc3uM7hUUZ-j3LoSTTxIo2q3EVxrvbYB95FVuI6A5ZgGpKaI3NlRt7qIezavgoM2oCpxTFQLOggOQwlW9lqgrCKLbFXXR9tV1cawUtle-2hQ?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But that comes with its own pressure: rising vacancy. Calgary offers the clearest signal, where vacancy in new buildings has jumped from 2 to 7 percent in one year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXdLvV6JcjsxpknhJj_8ZAmv0aQxN49HwsR0c0tT2f9NZ7pzpKGMZdMImTnJkKoTJUvGcpqD-IcE6OF4wrfujiCqGKb_DJeco_wS89uBQYm5R5HvusBfVx7PY6WC-jiKAHGmJYYr?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>More rentals. Fewer buyers. The renter economy is here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"were-not-building-enough-and-not-fast-enough\"><strong>We\u2019re Not Building Enough And Not Fast Enough<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Housing starts are up year-over-year, but still well below population needs. And the ratio of starts to population growth? Plunging.<br><br><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Construction labour is thinning. The ratio of workers to housing starts has fallen sharply. We don\u2019t have enough people to build what we need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXezT9x-GEl6vA9jOyBdGfiN0nH2OaMNaMIuz_S5cYaIaFQd0jY6VArRwy8-3XwKS1dxkcNh6S7qWMfz2Q2gPUzr7Hwe-9nE2Rv4Jugel0_LnKZV9kfxXwZcFw3PFO6f6QxPd2uIYQ?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Even the rental boom can\u2019t mask the shortfall. Demand is outpacing capacity, and the clock is ticking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ownership-is-being-capped-by-design\"><strong>Ownership Is Being Capped by Design<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The GST rebate for first-time buyers creates a hard line at the $1 million price point. And it\u2019s warping the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcVHnI3gw5ORatLJO-pUnEdDX2yla7DHjAr-y855SAKaB371JXuEMjqEkwhGAPu4ubsjm3qK1CsalnsS_5E0LzC3jdw8qiW1PsTjHqm7vlp44IcSlApaIxg-FuPBZUV0P-KNSSNUw?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The savings are real, up to $230 per month in Toronto, and thousands off the down payment. But they only apply below that threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcD7YJ-SQoAbOFhjl4IJWYNtDId0v6GiMWrXY-Ls3bkZWsJCo8TclwwvkacaliPvLGcu0OSQLt_ouvNMr5qgbrYU8uRES0DLWAuoSDiMJRVivPEY5NNcH2fzNKI-Rfi8St0t0CKmQ?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In Vancouver, few homes qualify. That\u2019s a problem. A national policy shouldn\u2019t exclude entire regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcHbBvI7fa4Cylf3GunMg7J1yOZpwM20sF9vb9Qk-_vJRiAYFfo4k7cyUum8c76cEUh9eEvNEGaEOjlD9k7R3ZSuQUngsgVfFFvGYYEPpxAGZCEGemtBpDGvg9bs9ZaAAQf26vj?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The incentive is well-intentioned. But it\u2019s reshaping what gets built and who gets to buy it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-economy-is-fragile-and-tariffs-arent-helping\"><strong>The Economy Is Fragile and Tariffs Aren\u2019t Helping<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Wages are growing, yes, but they\u2019re not delivering the relief you\u2019d expect. In the U.S., real wage growth has modestly outpaced inflation. In Canada, wages have surged faster, especially post-2021. But it hasn\u2019t translated into financial breathing room. Instead, households are using those gains to plug the holes left by higher debt loads, soaring rents, and an economy where affordability keeps slipping through their fingers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXeoZh7N1caQy9Bo4rizXsn6kJhstmpEt7E-Mhj4eUmLtICDtHq-I7aBxqIgNZIoaUSMX-q83cHarOpcUZ54RAOqYBEAUjfp_BAHpHHoZ3jHToQE7FqoFpgv16VQyL_QziNEf5Za-w?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This is not a wage problem. It\u2019s a pressure problem. Every dollar earned is spoken for, by rising shelter costs, inflated grocery bills, and the creeping cost of imported goods. And that\u2019s where tariffs enter the picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada&#8217;s effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is climbing, and the threat of reciprocal hikes from south of the border isn\u2019t helping. On the U.S. side, tariff rates have bounced around due to political posturing and trade agreements, but for Canadian households, the impact is more direct: price tags are rising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfX2Mhft4oYkCQ3vY6EtzE0mpHrB1KW9BwRhzaOrFda-JFwSoy0WeG88NZOzZhf50A3DLrER4_Ddebcr2IyUUjLvIivSenvKGZkU9jloW0m2yXcXnr0_JV2NIpN_mfnUeGhhhVOtw?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>What they have done is drive up prices of specific household goods. Everyday items like canned soup, paper towels, and facial tissue have seen double-digit price increases directly tied to trade policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXemVVQpgZJzp2yVkxdX4eAibiTEDF-mpxspfQ_5jjvOdSz-JwLampvwWIxI3rdXPB-EWvoy0f8Q9tER0N_TjcLBJNBAArAEhn5zV8IWtlVjMkp_ppNfXCFgILL-f65OOvARNP7RTw?key=4cA0NOFONhbcv7t440Ge2w\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The message here is simple: if you want interest rates to fall, you need inflation to cool. But if tariffs continue creeping upward, even selectively, that disinflation story becomes harder to believe. And the Bank of Canada stays in wait-and-see mode.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"final-word\"><strong>Final Word<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This is not the market you remember. It\u2019s leaner. Slower. Ownership is harder to reach. Debt is more expensive to carry. And policy is leaning harder toward rental, not resale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But clarity is a gift. And in this market, the charts don\u2019t lie.<br><br>If you want to see the full breakdown that informed this blog, complete with live commentary and deeper market context, watch below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Canadian Market Breakdown July 2025 | Debt, Housing Policy Changes &amp; Interest Rates | Daniel Foch\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/oMXoKIxIOUU?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"want-to-stay-ahead-of-the-curve\"><strong>Want to Stay Ahead of the Curve?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Join Daniel Foch for the next Market Call. <br><br>Subscribe to our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@valeryrealestate\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@valeryrealestate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">YouTube<\/a> channel to get the alert when it drops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or chat with Valery, your AI real estate companion, for live answers and property insights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because in this market, guessing is expensive. Knowing is power.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thirty-Five Charts That Will Change How You See the Market Canada\u2019s housing market isn\u2019t whispering anymore. It\u2019s roaring. And the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":16567,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"mtags":false,"featured_image_thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Monthly-Market-Call-June-2025.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16161"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16161"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16161\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17413,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16161\/revisions\/17413"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16567"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}