{"id":10015,"date":"2025-06-16T19:48:18","date_gmt":"2025-06-16T19:48:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/?p=10015"},"modified":"2025-06-16T20:03:06","modified_gmt":"2025-06-16T20:03:06","slug":"canada-housing-market-may-2025-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/canada-housing-market-may-2025-update\/","title":{"rendered":"May 2025 Canada Housing Market: Rebound or Rest Stop?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-rank-math-toc-block\" id=\"rank-math-toc\"><h2>Table of Contents<\/h2><nav><ul><li><a href=\"#sales-are-stirring-not-surging\">Sales Are Stirring, Not Surging<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#the-listings-keep-coming\">The Listings Keep Coming<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#prices-have-stabilized-but-theres-no-springboard\">Prices Have Stabilized, But There\u2019s No Springboard<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#negotiation-is-the-new-normal\">Negotiation Is the New Normal<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#still-a-market-for-the-measured\">Still a Market for the Measured<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>After half a year of falling sales, the Canada housing market finally saw a movement in the opposite direction. According to CREA, national home sales rose by 3.6% month-over-month, the first increase since November. But calling this a comeback would be premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If this is what pent-up demand looks like, it&#8217;s moving in slow motion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, activity improved. But it didn\u2019t accelerate. Buyers are stepping back in, but so are sellers and they\u2019re doing it faster. The latest data suggests that new listings are comfortably outpacing buyer demand. What many expected to be a rebound has instead materialized as a muted ripple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This quiet shift is easy to miss unless you&#8217;re reading beyond the headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"sales-are-stirring-not-surging\">Sales Are Stirring, Not Surging<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The 3.6% gain in national sales was driven mainly by large urban markets like Toronto, Calgary, and Ottawa. These cities carry enough weight to move national figures, but even with their push, total activity remained 4.3% lower than in May of last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, we saw movement, and just that. No frenzy. Most buyers still seem to be on alert, and that restraint is telling in a market that\u2019s grown used to extremes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"701\" src=\"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Sales-1024x701.png\" alt=\"Line chart tracking monthly home sales in the Canada housing market from 2007 to 2025 compared against the 10-year monthly moving average, showing long-term sales trends\" class=\"wp-image-10018\" srcset=\"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Sales-1024x701.png 1024w, https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Sales-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Sales-768x526.png 768w, https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Sales-330x226.png 330w, https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Sales.png 1079w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-listings-keep-coming\">The Listings Keep Coming<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If buyers are trickling back in, sellers are returning with more conviction. New listings rose another 3.1% in May, marking three consecutive months of gains. With 201,880 homes on the market, a 13.2% year-over-year increase, supply is quickly closing in on the long-term average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These aren\u2019t distressed sellers. They\u2019re confident ones, stepping back in after sitting out much of 2024. The national sales-to-new listings ratio held at 47%, notably below the 10-year average of 55%. On paper, the market looks balanced. In practice, it&#8217;s tilting toward buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s where the real shift lies: more choice, more negotiating room, and for now, more control in the hands of buyers. It mirrors what\u2019s unfolding in the GTA, where growing inventory and tempered demand have created conditions we haven\u2019t seen in years, a market where buyers set the pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"548\" src=\"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/MB.png\" alt=\"Bar and line chart showing residential market balance in the Canada housing market from January 2020 to May 2025, including months of inventory and sales-to-new-listings ratio.\" class=\"wp-image-10016\" srcset=\"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/MB.png 800w, https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/MB-300x206.png 300w, https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/MB-768x526.png 768w, https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/MB-330x226.png 330w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"prices-have-stabilized-but-theres-no-springboard\">Prices Have Stabilized, But There\u2019s No Springboard<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After several months of price declines, May brought a modest pause. The MLS\u00ae Home Price Index dipped just 0.2% from April, while the actual average sale price landed at $691,299, still 1.8% below last year\u2019s level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While there are signs that prices may be finding a floor, there\u2019s little to suggest a rebound is underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regionally, price trends diverge. Ontario and B.C. posted declines of 3% to 4%, pulling down the national average. But in much of the rest of the country, prices are rising. Manitoba, Quebec, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland saw year-over-year gains between 8% and 10%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In short, this is a market with pockets of heat, but no national flame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1280\" src=\"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Residential-Average-price-1-1024x1280.jpg\" alt=\"Bar chart from Valery Insights displaying year-over-year percentage change in residential average price across provinces in the Canada housing market, May 2025 vs. May 2024.\" class=\"wp-image-10029\" srcset=\"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Residential-Average-price-1-1024x1280.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Residential-Average-price-1-300x375.jpg 300w, https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Residential-Average-price-1-768x960.jpg 768w, https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Residential-Average-price-1-181x226.jpg 181w, https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Residential-Average-price-1.jpg 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"negotiation-is-the-new-normal\">Negotiation Is the New Normal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The market, with its latest performance, can be termed as a negotiation market, where nothing is guaranteed, and every deal is up for discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In these conditions, knowledge is leverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buyers have the advantage for now. Inventory is rising. Competition is thin. And the sense of urgency that defined the last cycle has faded. For the first time in years, the market is giving buyers time, to evaluate, to compare, and to push back. But that window won\u2019t stay open forever. If interest rates ease further in the second half of 2025, demand could reaccelerate and shift the balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some relief has already made its way through. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/storeys.com\/housing-affordability-improving-not-fast-enough\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Bank\u2019s Q1 2025 Housing Affordability Monitor<\/a>, mortgage rates have edged lower, and the MPPI, mortgage payments as a share of income, dropped to 55.4%, the lowest level in nearly three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other side of the table, sellers still have a path forward, but not without intention. The market will reward strategy: listings that are timed right, priced well, and presented with purpose will move.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"still-a-market-for-the-measured\">Still a Market for the Measured<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>What we saw in May wasn\u2019t the start of a boom. It was a return to discipline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buyers are back, but they\u2019re moving with calculation, not emotion. They\u2019re more informed, more selective, and more willing to walk away. This time, it\u2019s not about chasing the market. It\u2019s about understanding it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What comes next won\u2019t be defined by who moves first,&nbsp; but by who moves smartest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because in this new chapter of Canadian real estate, success doesn\u2019t go to the boldest. It goes to the best-informed.<br><br><strong>The market may be shifting quietly, but the smartest buyers are already positioning themselves.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Explore active listings, local insights, and data-backed guidance <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/valery.ca\"><strong>on our website<\/strong><\/a><strong>, where informed decisions begin.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After half a year of falling sales, the Canada housing market finally saw a movement in the opposite direction. According [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10019,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"mtags":false,"featured_image_thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Monthly-Market-Report-Cover-1728-x-1080-px-3.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10015"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10015"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10015\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10030,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10015\/revisions\/10030"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10019"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/valery.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}