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Thirty-Five Charts That Will Change How You See the Market
Canada’s housing market isn’t whispering anymore. It’s roaring. And the sound isn’t about crashes or booms, it’s about pressure. Supply pressure. Debt pressure. Rent pressure. Every part of the system is strained, and for once, it’s the numbers telling the real story.
This blog is your full diagnostic: every pressure point, every signal flashing red, every quiet crack beneath the surface. Pulled straight from Daniel Foch’s latest market update, it pairs sharp narrative with hard data: thirty-five charts that lay bare why ownership is slipping, how debt is grinding down growth, and what it really means to live through a housing system in transition.
Let’s go section by section. Just the truth, chart by chart.
Bond Yields Are the Real Rate Narrative
The Bank of Canada may have paused its policy rate, but mortgage rates are still drifting higher. Why? Because fixed rates follow the bond market and the bond market is pricing in risk.
Take the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. It’s hovering just above 3 percent, well above the lows we saw earlier this year. This is the core input in how lenders price your mortgage. It tells us that cheap credit isn’t coming back anytime soon.
Even the market’s own forecasts show no real decline in sight. Both the 2-year and 5-year rates are projected to stay elevated into 2027, dragging mortgage affordability with them.
The punchline? Don’t wait for relief from rates. Structure your next deal as if this is the new normal, because for now, it is.
Borrowers Are Strategizing, Not Panicking
You can always tell what buyers believe about the future by looking at their mortgage picks. And what we’re seeing right now is a pivot back to variable rates, despite years of pain.
This chart shows a sharp drop in the share of 3-year fixed mortgages and a notable uptick in variable rate demand.
What does that mean? Consumers are betting that rates will fall sooner than the Bank of Canada suggests. Or at the very least, they want the flexibility that a variable rate offers, especially if they think they might need to sell or refinance soon.
And while renewal stress has been a major headline, the data tells a more measured story. Roughly one-third of borrowers will see payment increases by 2026, not the majority.
The overall payment growth across Canada? Slowing. Mortgage service costs have stabilized after a period of wild volatility.
Renewal anxiety is real, but this isn’t a cliff. It’s a slow, uneven ramp. And a lot of Canadians are maneuvering around it.
The Debt Burden Is Shifting and Stretching
If you want to understand this market, follow the leverage.
Take a look at where Canadians are investing: real estate demand is flat, but capital is flowing heavily into US securities. A clear sign that trust in the housing market’s near-term performance is eroding.
StatsCan shows that 35–44 year-olds remain the most indebted cohort: no surprise, given they’re in the peak homebuying window. But what’s changed is who’s accelerating their debt: the 55+ crowd. They’re tapping into home equity, co-signing mortgages, and taking on liabilities to prop up a system that younger buyers can no longer access on their own.
The wealth gap in Canada is also changing. The top earners are getting wealthier, and the bottom quintile is sinking further into debt.
Credit product delinquencies are ticking up, across everything except mortgages and HELOCs. Those, for now, remain sacred.
But debt service ratios are climbing, especially among lower earners.
Younger Canadians are tapping out. Average mortgage debt for those under 35 is falling. They’re not deleveraging, they’re locked out.
And even those who hold homes are stretched. On a per capita basis, Canadians carry far more debt than Americans.
Even when adjusted for net worth, we still lose. Canadian liabilities make up a larger share of total wealth than south of the border.
This is a system where leverage drives wealth, unless you’re the one locked out of it.
The Market Has Rebalanced, But It’s Not Healthy
You’ve probably heard the phrase “soft landing.” This is what it looks like. Not a crash. Just exhaustion.
Price momentum has stalled. What little acceleration we saw in early 2023 has vanished.
Home price trends show a clear decline. The peak is behind us.
Resale inventory is climbing but buyers aren’t panicking, but they are hesitating.
The sales-to-new listings ratio has cooled to balance. And that’s exactly what this market needs.
Regionally, it is a mix of seller-friendly and buyer-friendly markets. In most major markets, this is a good market for negotiation. A good market for buyers. And a critical moment for sellers to get real.
We’re Not Buying, We’re Leasing
The most obvious shift in Canadian real estate right now? The explosion in rental housing.
Purpose-built rental starts have surged past condo starts for the first time in decades.
We’re becoming a nation of renters. Whether by design or by default.
CMHC’s own portfolio now insures more rental dollars than ownership housing. That’s a policy shift
Rental construction pipelines are at record highs.
But that comes with its own pressure: rising vacancy. Calgary offers the clearest signal, where vacancy in new buildings has jumped from 2 to 7 percent in one year.
More rentals. Fewer buyers. The renter economy is here.
We’re Not Building Enough And Not Fast Enough
Housing starts are up year-over-year, but still well below population needs. And the ratio of starts to population growth? Plunging.
Construction labour is thinning. The ratio of workers to housing starts has fallen sharply. We don’t have enough people to build what we need.
Even the rental boom can’t mask the shortfall. Demand is outpacing capacity, and the clock is ticking.
Ownership Is Being Capped by Design
The GST rebate for first-time buyers creates a hard line at the $1 million price point. And it’s warping the market.
The savings are real, up to $230 per month in Toronto, and thousands off the down payment. But they only apply below that threshold.
In Vancouver, few homes qualify. That’s a problem. A national policy shouldn’t exclude entire regions.
The incentive is well-intentioned. But it’s reshaping what gets built and who gets to buy it.
The Economy Is Fragile and Tariffs Aren’t Helping
Wages are growing, yes, but they’re not delivering the relief you’d expect. In the U.S., real wage growth has modestly outpaced inflation. In Canada, wages have surged faster, especially post-2021. But it hasn’t translated into financial breathing room. Instead, households are using those gains to plug the holes left by higher debt loads, soaring rents, and an economy where affordability keeps slipping through their fingers.
This is not a wage problem. It’s a pressure problem. Every dollar earned is spoken for, by rising shelter costs, inflated grocery bills, and the creeping cost of imported goods. And that’s where tariffs enter the picture.
Canada’s effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is climbing, and the threat of reciprocal hikes from south of the border isn’t helping. On the U.S. side, tariff rates have bounced around due to political posturing and trade agreements, but for Canadian households, the impact is more direct: price tags are rising.
What they have done is drive up prices of specific household goods. Everyday items like canned soup, paper towels, and facial tissue have seen double-digit price increases directly tied to trade policies.
The message here is simple: if you want interest rates to fall, you need inflation to cool. But if tariffs continue creeping upward, even selectively, that disinflation story becomes harder to believe. And the Bank of Canada stays in wait-and-see mode.
Final Word
This is not the market you remember. It’s leaner. Slower. Ownership is harder to reach. Debt is more expensive to carry. And policy is leaning harder toward rental, not resale.
But clarity is a gift. And in this market, the charts don’t lie.
If you want to see the full breakdown that informed this blog, complete with live commentary and deeper market context, watch below:
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