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Last week, CBC featured Valery’s very own Josh Jean-Baptiste on their popular “About That” segment, where he shared his expertise on Canada’s current real estate housing market. Josh leverages powerful AI-driven insights to help shed the light on the common question: is it a good time to buy a house? He explains what’s really going on in Canada’s unpredictable housing market, as uncertainty from Trump tariffs shakes up real estate activity in Toronto, Vancouver, and across the country.
Joshua helps explain why it’s so unusual to see prices, sales and interest rates all falling together, and whether or not this creates a golden opportunity to buy real estate. As he says, it seems we might be experiencing a rare “Goldilocks moment” for homebuyers. This article dives into what this means for homebuyers, how it affects you if you’re considering buying a house in Canada, and answers the question on everyone’s mind, is it a good time to buy a house?
What’s Happening With Canada’s Housing Market?
Over the past three years, Canada’s real estate housing market has been a wild rollercoaster ride. As agents described it, it’s been nothing short of “terrible, paralyzed, and a twilight zone.” The monthly home sales show just how chaotic things have been. Sales plummeted far below the 10-year average, making it a tough market for everyone.
But then, something interesting happened at the end of 2024. Home sales started to spike, mortgage rates in Canada came down to what the Bank of Canada considered “neutral,” and it looked like the market was finally bouncing back. Everyone assumed 2025 would be a great year for both prices and house sales. But, just a month later, everything fell apart again.
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, home sales across the country took a massive hit, dropping by about 10% from January to February. This was the largest monthly drop seen in almost three years. In high-cost markets like Vancouver and Toronto, the fall was even steeper — almost 13% in Vancouver and a whopping 30% in Toronto.
So, Is It A Good Time To Buy A House?
It’s not like the mortgage rates in Canada are sky-high. In fact, they’ve come down significantly from their peak of around 7% in February 2024. Now, they’re sitting at a bit over half that. So why aren’t people buying? Why aren’t house sales soaring with these better rates? And is it a good time to buy a house?
It turns out, the problem isn’t necessarily the rates themselves. It’s the uncertainty. As Josh Jean-Baptiste noted, “The uncertainty of the last few weeks seems to be causing some buyers to think twice about big financial decisions right now.” With Canadian companies cutting jobs left and right, many potential buyers are feeling uneasy about their job security. And when you’re unsure about your future income, taking on a massive financial commitment like a mortgage feels pretty risky.
This shaky confidence is also reflected in consumer confidence, which dropped by 12 points in February — the largest one-month drop since 2023. In fact, confidence levels are only slightly higher than they were in April 2020 when the pandemic had everyone on edge.
Josh’s ‘Goldilocks Moment’ Explained
For those willing and able to jump into the market despite the uncertainty, Josh believes there might be a rare “Goldilocks moment.” What he means by that is this: right now, there’s a decent amount of inventory on the market, mortgage rates in Canada are relatively low, and sellers are more willing to negotiate because they’re receiving fewer offers.
This window of opportunity might be small, but it’s there. As Josh puts it, “There’s certainly that kind of Goldilock zone where there is a decent amount of inventory, low rates, but if all buyers decide to re-enter the market over the next few months and there is a flurry of buying activity, we could then see this other weird zone where like even with all of the uncertainty and all the nonsense going on in the market, pricing starts to push upwards again.”
Timing Is Everything
This “Goldilocks moment” reminds Josh of early 2020. Back then, home sales, house sales, and interest rates all dropped. For a short period, it was a golden opportunity for those brave enough to push past the pandemic-related uncertainty. Buyers could snatch up homes at lower prices with ultra-low interest rates. But the window didn’t last. Within six months to a year, pent-up demand flooded the market, and prices skyrocketed.
Josh warns that we could see something similar happening soon. If too many buyers decide to jump in all at once, the demand will drive prices back up, making it much harder to find a good deal. And with the Bank of Canada interest rate cuts happening aggressively, things are already looking unusual — in a way that might make this moment even more fleeting.
Is It A Good Time To Buy A House, Or Should You Wait?
If you’re seriously considering buying a house in Canada, it might be worth acting sooner rather than later. Josh’s point is clear: there’s a window of opportunity now, but it’s closing quickly. The uncertainty that’s keeping many buyers away could be your biggest advantage. Fewer people competing for homes means you can negotiate better deals, especially from sellers who are motivated to sell quickly.
But it’s also important to be cautious. Predicting the market is a tricky game. Even Josh acknowledges that things can change fast. “If all buyers decide to re-enter the market over the next few months and there is a flurry of buying activity… pricing starts to push upwards again,” he says.
What’s Next?
The big question is whether confidence will return to the market soon. As Josh explains, there needs to be a catalyst that reassures buyers about what the new normal looks like. And with all the unpredictability right now, no one can say for sure when that will happen.
So, is it a good time to buy a house? If you’re financially stable and ready to take the plunge, the answer might be yes. But if you’re feeling uncertain, you’re definitely not alone. Just know that the market could shift quickly, and timing might be everything.
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