TRREB’s November data shows the housing correction in GTA entering a more complex and revealing stage, marked by weakening sales, growing inventory, and widening differences in how property types are adjusting.
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What happens when a housing correction reaches the stage where the market begins to challenge its own assumptions? The November data released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) brought that question to the centre of the conversation. The pattern that emerged shows the correction transitioning into a more intricate phase almost three years after it began. The adjustment is still circulating through the system, and its latest signals are revealing the forces that will shape the next chapter of the GTA housing cycle.
Transactions Decline as Available Supply Surges
November recorded just over 5,000 home sales, a drop of more than 15 per cent from a year earlier. This marks the second quietest November on record, with only the post–financial crisis period showing fewer transactions.
Active listings rose to 24,549, the highest number ever reported for a November in the GTA. Inventory has not reached these levels in more than a decade, and the increase is outpacing the modest 4 per cent annual decline in new listings. When demand contracts faster than supply, downward pressure intensifies and that is exactly what the data reflects.
A deeper signal is also visible below the headline numbers. November saw the highest number of listing terminations ever recorded for this month. Sellers who terminate late in the year often plan to relist in the spring, creating a layer of future supply that does not appear in the active listing count but still influences market pressure.
Home Prices Continue a Measured Descent
The average selling price slipped to $1,039,458 in November, down more than 6 per cent year over year. The MLS Home Price Index shows a similar drop of nearly 6 per cent. These are not dramatic declines on their own, yet they reaffirm a pattern that has been in place since early 2022. Month-to-month price movement was nearly flat, pointing to a gradual, controlled adjustment rather than a volatile shift. Most housing downturns unfold in this slow, grinding manner as balance gradually returns.
The Market’s Most Surprising Shift
Detached Properties Now Lead the Market’s Softness
Among all housing types, detached homes are showing the most pronounced weakness. Prices fell 8 per cent year over year, and the trend is consistent across both the city and the suburbs. Detached homes are typically seen as the most resilient segment during softening markets. Instead, they are absorbing the steepest declines, making them the clearest expression of this phase of the housing correction.
Core Toronto Condominiums Display Early Signs of Price Stability
In contrast, downtown condo prices in the 416 fell only 1.7 per cent year over year. Sales volumes are lower, but price stability is becoming more visible. This is the second consecutive month showing this pattern. It closely resembles the early 1990s downturn, when condos softened first but bottomed earlier than low-rise properties.
What Is Driving the Core’s Divergent Performance
A major factor is how people are returning to the city. Office towers are busier than they were a year ago. Hybrid work remains common, but the return-to-office trend has strengthened more than expected. Toronto is regaining some of the gravitational pull it lost during the pandemic. Commutes matter again. Proximity matters again. The steady revival of downtown life is helping anchor condo prices.
Supply dynamics also play a role. Active condo listings have been at record highs for 19 consecutive months, and rental listings are approaching historic November levels outside the pandemic. Investor-owned units are spending more time on the rental market, showing that supply is expanding even as prices hold relatively stable. The market is rediscovering the utility of downtown living while still digesting the excesses built up in the previous cycle.
Long-Term Supply Forces Quietly Reshaping the Market
Estate and Power-of-Attorney Sales Expand Underlying Inventory
Demographic change is increasingly visible in the data. Estate and power-of-attorney listings are now 10 per cent higher than last year and 78 per cent higher than a decade ago (see the chart below, courtesy of @JonFlynnREstats from X). This is not a cyclical development. It reflects an aging homeowner population transitioning properties through estates or long-term care planning. During slower markets, this layer of supply becomes more pronounced, contributing to the volume that demand cannot fully absorb.
Time on Market Reveals the Ongoing Market Reset
Homes are taking longer to sell. The average listing sat on the market for 34 days in November, while the property-level measure reached 56 days. Both figures register a year over year increase, but are consistent with historical norms during softer market conditions.
The three-month rolling average of months of inventory remains elevated, reflecting the volume of listings that continue to sit unabsorbed even as the properties that do sell move at a pace aligned with long-term patterns.
Placing This Correction Within the Broader Cycle
Economic conditions are mixed but showing hints of improvement. November’s employment data beat expectations, and growth indicators surprised to the upside. This matters because housing demand depends heavily on job confidence. Many prospective buyers want to take advantage of lower borrowing costs and softer prices, but hesitation remains without clearer employment security.
The current trajectory is also starting to resemble previous long cycles (see the chart below, courtesy of @xelan_gta from X). When compared with downturns that began in 1989, 2007, and 2022, this phase is unmistakable: rising inventory, slower sales, and diverging behaviour across property types. The GTA is moving through the middle stage of a typical housing correction.
What the Current Stage Means for Market Participants
Buyers
Detached homes now offer more choice, deeper value, and stronger negotiation conditions than at any time since before the pandemic.
Sellers
Pricing discipline and patience matter again. Days on market show a return to a more normal rhythm compared to the extreme pace of the previous cycle.
Investors
The downtown rental market is helping stabilise the core. Early signs of recovery typically appear first in areas where employment clusters and transit access intersect.
Closing Perspective
November’s data marks a more advanced, more revealing phase of the GTA’s housing correction. The region is moving through a familiar cycle. The details are new, but the underlying rhythm is not. The search for balance is ongoing, and the signals emerging within the data point to where that balance may eventually take shape.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What is driving the current housing correction in the GTA?
The housing correction in the GTA is being driven by a combination of weakening sales, rising inventory, structural demographic pressures, and a slower pace of price absorption. Detached homes, in particular, are showing the steepest declines, which signals a more advanced stage of the housing correction.
2. How are condo prices behaving during the housing correction?
Downtown condo prices have shown exceptional resilience during the housing correction, falling only slightly year over year. This reflects a return to downtown utility, stronger office occupancy, and the historical pattern where condos often stabilize earlier than low-rise homes during a housing correction.
3. Why is inventory rising so quickly in this phase of the housing correction?
Inventory is accelerating because sales have dropped sharply while new listings have declined only modestly. Terminated listings, estate sales, and power-of-attorney listings are also adding to supply, intensifying the depth of the housing correction across the GTA.
4. What does the housing correction mean for buyers and sellers?
For buyers, the housing correction offers more selection and stronger negotiating leverage, especially in the detached segment. For sellers, the housing correction requires disciplined pricing, patience, and a clear understanding of longer days on market relative to previous years.
5. How long could the GTA housing correction last?
Historical cycles suggest that a housing correction progresses through multiple stages before stabilizing. With rising inventory, mixed economic signals, and diverging performance across property types, the current housing correction may extend into 2026, following patterns similar to earlier downturns in 1989, 2007, and 2022.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Daniel Foch is the Chief Real Estate Officer at Valery, and Host of Canada’s #1 real estate podcast. As co-founder of The Habistat, the onboard data science platform for TRREB & PropTx, he has helped the real estate industry to become more transparent, using real-time housing market data to inform decision making for key stakeholders.
Daniel is a trusted voice in the Canadian real estate market, regularly contributing to media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CBC, Bloomberg, The Globe and Mail, Storeys and Real Estate Magazine (REM). His expertise and balanced insights have garnered a dedicated audience of over 100,000 real estate investors across multiple social media platforms, where he shares primary research and market analysis.