Canada’s housing affordability has deteriorated across every major measure over the past decade. Down payments, mortgage payments, and rent burdens have all risen far faster than household incomes. The result is a structural affordability crisis that now defines economic life in nearly every Canadian CMA.
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What does it mean for a country when the typical family can no longer afford the typical home in any major city? The implications extend beyond real estate and reach into the foundations of economic mobility, household stability, and the long-term strength of the national economy. Canada now contends with a structural imbalance (guilty for using this term frequently) in housing that cannot be explained by short-term cycles or isolated market conditions. The forces driving costs have accelerated far beyond what median-income families can sustain, and the result is a nationwide affordability crisis with regional expressions of extraordinary intensity.
The latest housing affordability report released by the Fraser Institute, which informs the analysis throughout this blog, tracks ownership and rental burdens across Canadian CMAs between 2014 and 2023. The findings provide one of the most comprehensive portraits of affordability across the country and reveal a decade of steady deterioration, sharp pandemic-era accelerations, and widening gaps between regions. Although every CMA has felt the pressure, the differences in severity have reshaped the national housing landscape. Vancouver and Toronto stand out as distinct outliers whose affordability metrics now anchor the upper extremes of the national distribution.
In this blog, I examine this decade-long evolution of affordability through three interconnected lenses. The first is the rising burden of the down payment. The second is the expanding weight of the representative mortgage payment. The third is the persistent increase in rental costs relative to income. Together, they illustrate how far the housing system has drifted from the financial capacity of median-income households across urban Canada.
Down Payments Move Beyond Median Incomes
The journey into ownership begins with the down payment, and the past decade has stretched this requirement far beyond what typical families can assemble through income alone. In 2014, the average household in a Canadian CMA needed roughly 14 months of after-tax income to build a 20 percent down payment on a benchmark home. By 2023, the time required had climbed to 22 months. Population-weighted figures paint an even sharper picture, rising from 19 to 28 months, which reflects the heavy influence of larger and more expensive markets.
The pandemic period accelerated this trend. In 2021, the required down payment jumped by more than 4 months of income in a single year, the steepest rise in the report’s dataset. Even the modest improvement in 2023 left the average burden nearly 5 months worse than its pre-pandemic level.
The disparities across Canada’s CMAs underscore the scale of the divide. Vancouver stood at the furthest extreme, where a median-income family had to assemble the equivalent of 43.7 months of after-tax income to meet a standard down payment. Fredericton, by contrast, required 10.6 months. The distance between the two equals almost three full years of income.
Mortgage Payments Stretch Household Capacity
Clearing the down payment barrier does not resolve the challenge. The monthly mortgage obligation has become an equally powerful determinant of who enters ownership and at what cost to their long-term financial stability. Between 2014 and 2023, the representative monthly mortgage payment across Canadian CMAs rose from $1,265 to $3,015. Population-weighted figures climbed from $1,677 to $3,793. This reflects both the rapid appreciation of home prices and the sharp rise in borrowing costs.
No year illustrates this shift more clearly than 2022, when average mortgage payments spiked by 36 percent. The combination of elevated prices and interest rates reshaped the financial threshold required to enter the market in a way that median-income growth could not match.
Here too, the regional divergence is striking. In Vancouver, the typical mortgage payment reached $6,052 in 2023. In Trois-Rivières, the lowest in the dataset, the payment was $1,259.
Mortgage Burdens Reach Unprecedented Levels
The share of income required to service a representative mortgage payment reveals the true depth of the affordability crisis. In 2014, a median-income family in an average CMA directed roughly 30 percent of its after-tax income toward a mortgage. By 2023, that share had climbed to 56.6 percent. When weighted for population, the burden reached nearly 72 percent.
By 2023, more than half of Canadian CMAs required median families to devote over 50 percent of their income to cover a representative mortgage payment. Ten CMAs exceeded 70 percent. Vancouver and Toronto sat beyond even these extremes. In both cities, the required payment surpassed median after-tax income entirely.
Ownership at benchmark prices for typical families is almost unattainable without significant external support, whether through prior equity, intergenerational wealth, or unusually high household earnings.
Regional Divides Become Defining Features
In the previous sections, I have touched upon regional differences for various metrics. I will use this section to go into more detail.
The time period considered in the report reveals pronounced contrasts across Canada’s regions. Ontario’s mid-sized CMAs experienced some of the steepest declines in affordability, with Windsor, London, St. Catharines, Brantford, and Kitchener–Waterloo each falling sharply in their national rankings. Price pressures intensified rapidly, and local income growth was unable to absorb the shift. As a result, we see a landscape in which families that once looked to these cities as comparatively attainable alternatives now confront affordability challenges once associated only with the largest urban centres.
The Prairies present a different narrative. Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary, and St. John’s recorded relatively modest affordability declines and in several cases improved their national standing. Moderate price movements and more balanced income dynamics helped preserve a level of accessibility not found in other regions.
Quebec occupies a distinctive position. Montreal improved its affordability ranking significantly, while smaller Quebec CMAs remained among the most accessible markets in the country.
These differences highlight the varied relationship between regional economics, supply conditions, and housing demand.
Renters Encounter a Parallel Squeeze
The ownership market is not the only arena in which affordability deteriorated. Renters across Canada also faced strain, with rental costs outpacing household incomes over the years.
In 2014, median rent consumed roughly 20 percent of a family’s after-tax income in Canadian CMAs. By 2023, the burden had climbed to 23.5 percent. Weighted figures rose even higher, reaching 26.4 percent.
The most pressured rental markets aligned closely with the most pressured ownership markets. Toronto required 34.7 percent of a median family’s income for median rent in 2023, while Vancouver required 31.8 percent. Both exceeded widely used affordability thresholds.
Quebec’s rental markets remained comparatively accessible. Saguenay, Trois-Rivières, Drummondville, Sherbrooke, and Québec City all reported burdens well below the national average. In Saguenay, a median-income family devoted just 13.5 percent of its income to rent.
The broader trend is evident in the chart below. Rent burdens increased in most CMAs over the decade, and several cities with already elevated rents in 2014 experienced some of the sharpest increases by 2023. These gains constrained household capacity to save and pushed homeownership even further out of reach for many renters.
The Systemic Implications for Canada’s Housing Future
The deterioration in both ownership and rental affordability over the past decade carries significant consequences for Canada’s economic trajectory. When typical families cannot secure typical homes without external support, the housing system no longer performs its traditional role as a pathway to stability and long-term wealth. The constraints reverberate through labour markets, influence consumption patterns, and shape intergenerational financial outcomes.
Cities such as Vancouver and Toronto amplify the challenge. Their size and economic importance mean that deteriorating affordability conditions do not remain local issues. They influence the country’s ability to attract talent, support household formation, and maintain economic growth. Nearby CMAs, such as Oshawa and Abbotsford–Mission, face similar pressures that extend the problem across wider regions.
Renters encounter their own version of this challenge. Rental burdens, which have now gone down slightly, still reduce their ability to save for down payments and narrow the possibilities for upward mobility. The effect compounds over time and contributes to growing inequality between owners and renters.
A path forward requires a lot to be done. Canada needs sustained acceleration in housing supply, improved regulatory coordination, and strategies that drive stronger growth in after-tax incomes. Without a recalibration of the system, the gap between household capacity and housing costs will continue to widen, particularly in the country’s most economically significant CMAs.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1 What does the latest data show about housing affordability in Canada?
The findings point to a decade of deteriorating affordability across Canadian CMAs. Between 2014 and 2023, the time required to save a standard down payment rose from 14 to 22 months for the average CMA, while representative mortgage payments increased from $1,265 to $3,015. Rental burdens also climbed, rising from 20 percent to 23.5 percent of after-tax income.
Q2 Why has ownership affordability weakened so significantly since 2014?
Ownership affordability has eroded because down payments and mortgage payments have grown far faster than median after-tax incomes. Population-weighted figures show down payment requirements rising from 19 to 28 months of income, while weighted mortgage payments climbed from $1,677 to $3,793. In several CMAs, median families now face mortgage burdens exceeding 50 to 70 percent of their income.
Q3 How do regional differences influence housing affordability across the country?
Affordability varies sharply by region. Ontario’s mid-sized CMAs such as Windsor, London, St. Catharines, Brantford, and Kitchener–Waterloo saw some of the steepest affordability declines. The Prairies remained comparatively stable, with modest price growth, while Quebec CMAs, particularly Montreal, Saguenay, Sherbrooke, Drummondville, and Québec City continued to report some of the strongest affordability metrics nationally.
Q4 What is the state of rental affordability in Canada today?
Rental affordability has also deteriorated. The share of income required for median rent rose from 20 percent in 2014 to 23.5 percent in 2023, with population-weighted figures at 26.4 percent. Toronto renters now devote 34.7 percent of after-tax income to median rent, and Vancouver renters 31.8 percent, both above common affordability thresholds. Quebec markets remain more accessible, with Saguenay at just 13.5 percent.
Q5 Why does declining affordability matter for Canada’s economic future?
Weakening affordability affects core elements of economic stability. By 2023, more than half of Canadian CMAs required median-income families to spend over 50 percent of after-tax income on a representative mortgage payment, with 10 CMAs exceeding 70 percent. These pressures constrain household formation, reduce long-term wealth building, and weaken labour mobility, creating broader economic consequences far beyond housing markets.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Daniel Foch is the Chief Real Estate Officer at Valery, and Host of Canada’s #1 real estate podcast. As co-founder of The Habistat, the onboard data science platform for TRREB & PropTx, he has helped the real estate industry to become more transparent, using real-time housing market data to inform decision making for key stakeholders.
Daniel is a trusted voice in the Canadian real estate market, regularly contributing to media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CBC, Bloomberg, The Globe and Mail, Storeys and Real Estate Magazine (REM). His expertise and balanced insights have garnered a dedicated audience of over 100,000 real estate investors across multiple social media platforms, where he shares primary research and market analysis.
