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Why Rising Sales Signal Opportunity, Not Euphoria
The GTA housing market just got interesting again. Home sales are up. Buyers are stepping back in. The summer market is heating up. But if you’re assuming we’re back to 2021-style boom times, it’s worth taking a closer look. The truth isn’t hiding, it’s just in the details.
Yes, sales are rising. But they’re rising from a low base. And the path forward is not one of blind acceleration, but of cautious momentum. The market is regaining its balance.
A Low Base, A Measured Rise
TRREB’s July 2025 report showed a 10.9 per cent year-over-year increase in home sales. That’s a meaningful lift, especially after a slow July last year. But gains like these mean more when viewed in context.
We are climbing out of a trough. Prices remain lower than they were a year ago. Inventory is elevated. And homes are taking longer to sell than they did during previous cycles.
This is a new rhythm. After a period of volatility, the market is taking a breath. That breath is what gives serious buyers and sellers space to make smart, informed moves.
Prices Down, Affordability Up
The average price across the GTA now sits at $1,051,719, a 5.5 per cent dip from last July. Detached homes are down just over five per cent. Condos have seen deeper declines, particularly in the 905, where values fell by more than 10 per cent.
For many would-be buyers, this represents the first real opportunity to re-engage. A market that once raced out of reach is beginning to come back within it.
Affordability is improving, even if slowly. Price declines have opened the door, and buyers who were sidelined during the height of the market are starting to step through it. Sales are climbing because the numbers make more sense now.
That said, affordability remains complex. Rates are still elevated. Qualification is still tough. For every buyer who enters, another may be waiting for the next signal. But what we are seeing is movement. And movement matters.
Inventory Builds, but Buyers Are Active
One number that stands out is active listings, up 26.2 per cent year-over-year. There are now more than 30,000 homes on the market across the GTA. That kind of supply gives buyers real choice.
New listings rose as well, though at a slower rate. Much of the growth in inventory is a result of homes taking longer to sell. The average time on market is up 25 per cent compared to last year. Buyers now have room to think, and sellers have time to price with care.
Homes are selling in weeks instead of days. That pace is giving both sides the ability to negotiate without panic.
Condos Cooling, Core Holding
The sharpest declines this month came in the condo segment. In the 905, average condo prices fell by more than 10 per cent. Even in the core, where demand tends to be more resilient, prices slipped nearly nine per cent.
Townhouses and semis, long considered middle-market staples, saw more modest declines of 7.4 and 2.3 per cent, respectively. Detached homes, down 5.4 per cent, fell in between.
Values are adjusting across all segments. That shift is creating opportunities, especially for buyers looking for value in locations or categories that were once out of reach.
A Market Gaining Direction
Some narratives suggest today’s market lacks urgency. But hesitation in this environment is often a form of discipline.
During the boom, waiting meant falling behind. Today, waiting can mean gathering data, watching trends, negotiating better. Buyers are more strategic now. Sellers who meet the moment with the right pricing and presentation are still closing strong.
The market is becoming more intentional. Volume is rising, but not recklessly. It is thoughtful. It is selective. The current behaviour is what builds lasting momentum.
A Reality Check from the Ground
Daniel Foch, our Chief Real Estate Officer, offered a timely take on social media that deserves attention. He reminded readers that sales may be up, but prices are still down, and homes are taking longer to move.
That perspective sharpens the lens. It encourages buyers and sellers to ground their decisions in reality, not headlines. The current activity is not hype-driven. It reflects genuine interest from households who have been waiting for better entry points.
So Where Are We Now?
We may not be at the bottom, but we’re close to stable ground. The sharpest corrections appear to be behind us. Prices are flattening month-over-month. Buyer interest is returning. Sellers are adjusting expectations and moving forward with better alignment.
The big accelerants: rate cuts, broader economic easing, renewed investor confidence have yet to materialize. When they do, market conditions may shift quickly. Those waiting for absolute certainty may find they missed the window to act deliberately.
Final Word
This is a market in motion. For buyers, this is the most balanced environment in months. For sellers, this is a moment to lead with strategy and confidence.
At Valery, we help clients move with insight, not impulse. Whether you’re looking to enter, exit, upgrade, or invest, the opportunity is there. You just need to move with clarity.
Our AI is trained on the latest market data and local trends, so your next move is grounded in real-time intelligence.
Get your personalized, AI-crafted real estate playbook that fits this market and your goals.
This is your moment.